2014 Week 12 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals +7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/SEAHAWKS] Every week it is hard to believe that a team that is only averaging 79 yards per game can win.  However, that is exactly what the Cardinals are doing.  It could be because this same team is only allowing 17 points per game.  The real battle today is the Seahawks offense that is powering 174 rushing yards per game versus a stingy Cardinals defense that is allowing only 80 rushing yards per game. This same defense already cranking out 15 interceptions this season.  One thing that is too hard to resist is a Cardinals team that is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game versus a Seahawks team that is 1-5 ATS in their last six games.  Hard to believe that these opposing quarterback staffs enter with matching quarterback ratings.

2014 Week 11 NFL Picks: 5* Niners -3.5 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[49ers/GIANTS] While it kills me to say it, it is hard to resist a Niners team that is 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 Road games.  Although the Niners have been outscored by nearly 1 point per game this season, the Giants have been outscored by nearly 6; outscored by an average of nearly 13 points per game in giong 1-4 ATS in their last five games.  This game is a long way from the Giants big upset back in 2012 in San Francisco.  While the Niners offense has struggled in powering only 343 yards per game, the Giants continued battle with injuries and 27th ranked defense allowing over 400 yards per game should provide them plenty of opportunities.

2014 Week 9 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals -1, 4* Chiefs -9 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/COWBOYS] Losing Romo in the biggest upset of the year spells trouble for a Cowboys team facing a streaking Cardinals team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  6-1 SU in their last seven games, the time is now for the Cardinals to turn their 0-5 record ATS in their last five games in Dallas.   The Cowboys will suffer the same fate of so many this year against the #1 ranked Cardinals rush defense.

[Jets/CHIEFS] It is hard to resist a CHIEFS team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 14 points per game.  With a balanced offense, it is the defense that is allowing less than 307 yards per game, including only 195.7 passing yards per game.  Arrowhead will too large a hill to climb for a visiting Jets team that is powering only 16 points per game in their last five games.

2014 Week 7 NFL Picks: 5* Browns -4, 4* CHARGERS -3 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Browns/JAGUARS]  It is impossible to resist a streaking Browns team that is facing a JAGUARS team that has been outscored by nearly 18 points per game in their last five games.  The Jaguars opening the game 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten home games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.  The Browns arriving 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games are averaging nearly 30 points per game.

[Chiefs/CHARGERS ] Zapped again by the Raiders, the CHARGERS return home to face the struggling Chiefs.  While the Chiefs have taken three out of their last five games ATS, the Chargers arrive powering over 396 yards per game in their last five games.  Although the Chargers have continued to struggle on the ground, they arrive outscoring their opponents by nearly 12 points per game.  Having not seen a spread this low in their matchups in last five years, look for the Chargers to continue their 5-0 run SU versus the Chiefs in San Diego.

 

 

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Broncos -9.5, 4* Chargers -7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Broncos/JETS]  Having found our first big win in San Diego last week, it is difficult not to head to New York this week.  Even with the spread seeming to rise like a IPO, it is simply too hard to resist going against a Jets team with a quarterback controversy stemming from an average quarterback rating of 66.5i  While its defense is only allowing 320 yards per game, the are also allowing a 47.3 3rd down percentage.  Outscored by nearly 10 points in their last 5 games in managing only 15.8 points per game, the Broncos, who arrive outscoring their opponents by nearly 9 points on nearly 400 yards per game in their last 5 do not appear ready to fall in a trap given that they are led by Manning, 109.  While the Broncos rushing attack has struggled, and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, look Denver to head to to the air to continue the Jets run of 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

[Chargers/RAIDERS] Over the years, there have been plenty of stumbles for the Chargers in Oakland stadium.  Times were different, and the Raiders were not 0-5 ATS in their last five Home games, and not 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.  While the Chargers are only averaging 347 yards per game, they are the hottest team ATS at the moment at 5-0 ATS in outscoring their opponents by 14 points per game. With their quarterbacks averaging only 72.9 rating, they powering only 12.8 points per game in their last five games.  There is no mystery here that Rivers, 116.3 rating will head to the air.  The only mystery is how the Raiders can try to stop it.

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Steelers -6, 4* CHARGERS -6 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Steelers/JAGUARS] When you are on an 0-7 run ATS, you chase any victory you think you can get your hands on.  For that reason, we head to Jacksonville, where the JAGUARS, 0-4 ATS in 2014, and outscored by nearly 24 points per game in their last three games, will face a Steelers team that were shocked by the Bucs.  Managing only 279 yards per game to their opponents 451, it would appear an easy window for Rothlisberger, 99.4 rating, and his offense that is powering 412 yards per game to jump through to get back on track.  Look for Tomlin, who is 3-9 ATS in his NFL career in games versus winless opponents, including 0-5 SUATS his last five, to get back on track with The Director.

[Jets/CHARGERS]  Powering a 114.5 rating, Rivers looks like he has recaptured the magic that west coast buzzing.   While the Chargers, 4-0 ATS in 2014, have struggled on the ground without Matthews, River’s air assault has been relentless.  Although the Jets arrive a steller 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games off three straight losses, their offensive struggles with Smith, 75.1 rating at the helm will continue.  Look for the Chargers defense that has held opponents to only 97.3 rushing yards per game to slow a Jets rushing attack powering over 151 yards per game.  Like the Director look for San Diego to turn is sour record of 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in this series when playing off a win.

2014 Week 4 NFL Picks: 5* Falcons -3, 4* Saints -3 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Falcons/VIKINGS]  On an 0-4 streak, The Director looks to turn the tide in the South.  Believing the Falcons are not looking ahead to Big Blue, look for the Falcons, who are outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game in 2014 on over 455 yards per game, to have their way with the Vikings, whose quarterbacks arrive with a 69.6 rating.  Look for Ryan, 105.1 rating, and a rushing attack averaging 4.6 yards per carry to find cracks in a Vikings defense that is allowing only 335 yards per game.  With Peterson sidelined, look for the Vikings offense to struggle to find ways to exploit the weak Falcons defense allowing 387 yards per game.

[Saints/COWBOYS] If Payton didn’t have already have an advantage, the addition of Ryan should allow them to be a step ahead as they look to right the ship in Dallas; winning their last matchup by 32 points in 2013.  Although the Saints arrive 1-2 ATS, in outscoring their opponents by only 2 points per game, look for their high-flying offense powering 421.7 yards per game to be too much for a Cowboys team that arrives 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Home games.  While Romo, 86.1 rating, has struggled in he big game, Brees, 99.1 rating, seems built for prime time television.  Short Ingram, look for Brees to methodically move down the field to Graham, and hit the big play to Colston to be step ahead.

2014 Week 1 NFL Picks: 5* Niners -3.5, 4* Patriots -4 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Niners/COWBOYS] It is always risky to start the year off on the road. If there was ever a team to do it with, it is the San Francisco 49ers, who were only one step short of the Super Bowl last year. The Niners standing tall as one of the best Road teams in 2013 going 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 Road games. The Cowboys on the other hand enter 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and 6-13 ATS at Home. Look for the Niners to start on the ground with it top rushers averaging over 5.7 yards per carry in the Preseason. Among the many question marks for Dallas will be the return of Romo from surgery. While he had a 97.5 rating during the preseason, this is the real thing.

[Patriots/DOLPHINS] The Director has been shocked here before. The Patriots, who are 0-2 ATS in their most recent visits to Miami, hope to recapture the magic that allowed the to defeat the Fish by 14 points here in 2011. Brady will be looking for revenge for the 2013 loss her ATS that was one of two blemishes on a 6-2 run ATS in the second half of last season. Powering a rating of 123.8 on 9.2 yards per attempt, Brady looks like he is poised to be a contender again in 2014. The Fish, on the other hand, are still looking for a quarterback to run the show. Look for Wilfork to control Moreno, the Dolphins one big weapon.

2013 Week 9 5* NFL Pick: Saints -5.5 Chiefs -5 4* Seahawks -15.5

[Saints/JETS] Brees, 109.2 rating, and the Saints are a stellar 10-3 ATS in November. Having lost by 40 last week, the Jets, 1-5 ATS in November, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring fewer than 15 points, will hope Geno Smith, 71.6 rating, can bounce back. Sacked 28 times, and having thrown one TD and nine interceptions in their losses, Smith, will struggle to keep up with the Saints, who averaged over 32 points per game in their last five games.

[Chiefs/BILLS] Given the Chiefs 0-9 run ATS versus the AFC East, everyone is calling for an upset today. Experts believe that the Bills, 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, will take down the tenacious Chiefs defense that is holding opposing offenses to a league-low 12.3 points per game. While the Chiefs are 4-11 ATS against teams with losing records, they are on fire on the Road this year.

[Buccaneers/SEAHAWKS] Having struggled badly on offense in a 14-9 win over the St. Louis Rams on Monday night, totaling just 135 yards, the Home crowd will be happy to bounce back against the winless Bucs, who will be commanded by Glennon, 78 rating. Averaging less than 300 yards per game, and less than 20 points per game, the Bucs will continue their recent 0-4 run ATS versus the NFC against the Seahawks, who are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games on turf with a defense allowing just 189 yards per game.

2013 Week 8 MNF 5* NFL Pick: Seahawks -13 #nflonedotcom

[Seahawks/RAMS] If only Bradford had not been injured. Instead the Seahawks, 3-1 ATS Away, 5-0-1 ATS on Monday Night, arrive to face off with the Rams, who arrive 1-4 ATS as Underdogs this year; one of only a a handful teams to ever arrive Underdogs of 11 or more points on Monday Night. Former Jets quarterback, Clemons, who arrives with a 62.2 career passer rating, will be unable to go toe-to-toe with Wilson, 97.2 rating, and Lynch, who has already powered an impressive 578 yards. Tied for 2nd at +7 in turnover ratio, look for early mistakes by Clemons and Co to put this one out of reach.