2014 Week 12 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals +7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/SEAHAWKS] Every week it is hard to believe that a team that is only averaging 79 yards per game can win.  However, that is exactly what the Cardinals are doing.  It could be because this same team is only allowing 17 points per game.  The real battle today is the Seahawks offense that is powering 174 rushing yards per game versus a stingy Cardinals defense that is allowing only 80 rushing yards per game. This same defense already cranking out 15 interceptions this season.  One thing that is too hard to resist is a Cardinals team that is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game versus a Seahawks team that is 1-5 ATS in their last six games.  Hard to believe that these opposing quarterback staffs enter with matching quarterback ratings.

2014 Week 10 NFL Picks: 5* Steelers -3.5, 4* CARDINALS -7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Steelers/JETS]  Having started off slowly, the Steelers have powered over 414 yards per game in their last five games in rolling up 4 of 5 wins ATS.  Roethlisberger powering 315 yards per game through the air during the run as his rating has quietly powered up to 110.6.   The Jets, 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games, are averaging only 15 points per game in their last five game in being outscored by over 16 points per game; they simply do not seem to have what it takes to trap the Steelers in New York.  Relying on its rushing defense to stay in games, look for the Jets to struggle under the weight of the Steelers passing attack.

[Rams/CARDINALS] Although the Rams have some exciting recent performance, it is too hard to resist the Cardinals in front of their home crowd.  2-5 ATS in their last seven games, outscored by nearly 9 points per game, Davis, 87.8 rating will struggle with a Cardinals defense that is shutting down opposing rushing attacks.  2-0 ATS in their last two matchups with St. Louis, including a 20 point margin of victory in their last battle in Arizona, look for the Cardinals, 4-1 ATS in their last five games to down the Rams.

2014 Week 9 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals -1, 4* Chiefs -9 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/COWBOYS] Losing Romo in the biggest upset of the year spells trouble for a Cowboys team facing a streaking Cardinals team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  6-1 SU in their last seven games, the time is now for the Cardinals to turn their 0-5 record ATS in their last five games in Dallas.   The Cowboys will suffer the same fate of so many this year against the #1 ranked Cardinals rush defense.

[Jets/CHIEFS] It is hard to resist a CHIEFS team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 14 points per game.  With a balanced offense, it is the defense that is allowing less than 307 yards per game, including only 195.7 passing yards per game.  Arrowhead will too large a hill to climb for a visiting Jets team that is powering only 16 points per game in their last five games.

2014 Week 7 NFL Picks: 5* Browns -4, 4* CHARGERS -3 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Browns/JAGUARS]  It is impossible to resist a streaking Browns team that is facing a JAGUARS team that has been outscored by nearly 18 points per game in their last five games.  The Jaguars opening the game 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten home games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.  The Browns arriving 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games are averaging nearly 30 points per game.

[Chiefs/CHARGERS ] Zapped again by the Raiders, the CHARGERS return home to face the struggling Chiefs.  While the Chiefs have taken three out of their last five games ATS, the Chargers arrive powering over 396 yards per game in their last five games.  Although the Chargers have continued to struggle on the ground, they arrive outscoring their opponents by nearly 12 points per game.  Having not seen a spread this low in their matchups in last five years, look for the Chargers to continue their 5-0 run SU versus the Chiefs in San Diego.

 

 

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Broncos -9.5, 4* Chargers -7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Broncos/JETS]  Having found our first big win in San Diego last week, it is difficult not to head to New York this week.  Even with the spread seeming to rise like a IPO, it is simply too hard to resist going against a Jets team with a quarterback controversy stemming from an average quarterback rating of 66.5i  While its defense is only allowing 320 yards per game, the are also allowing a 47.3 3rd down percentage.  Outscored by nearly 10 points in their last 5 games in managing only 15.8 points per game, the Broncos, who arrive outscoring their opponents by nearly 9 points on nearly 400 yards per game in their last 5 do not appear ready to fall in a trap given that they are led by Manning, 109.  While the Broncos rushing attack has struggled, and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, look Denver to head to to the air to continue the Jets run of 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

[Chargers/RAIDERS] Over the years, there have been plenty of stumbles for the Chargers in Oakland stadium.  Times were different, and the Raiders were not 0-5 ATS in their last five Home games, and not 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.  While the Chargers are only averaging 347 yards per game, they are the hottest team ATS at the moment at 5-0 ATS in outscoring their opponents by 14 points per game. With their quarterbacks averaging only 72.9 rating, they powering only 12.8 points per game in their last five games.  There is no mystery here that Rivers, 116.3 rating will head to the air.  The only mystery is how the Raiders can try to stop it.

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Steelers -6, 4* CHARGERS -6 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Steelers/JAGUARS] When you are on an 0-7 run ATS, you chase any victory you think you can get your hands on.  For that reason, we head to Jacksonville, where the JAGUARS, 0-4 ATS in 2014, and outscored by nearly 24 points per game in their last three games, will face a Steelers team that were shocked by the Bucs.  Managing only 279 yards per game to their opponents 451, it would appear an easy window for Rothlisberger, 99.4 rating, and his offense that is powering 412 yards per game to jump through to get back on track.  Look for Tomlin, who is 3-9 ATS in his NFL career in games versus winless opponents, including 0-5 SUATS his last five, to get back on track with The Director.

[Jets/CHARGERS]  Powering a 114.5 rating, Rivers looks like he has recaptured the magic that west coast buzzing.   While the Chargers, 4-0 ATS in 2014, have struggled on the ground without Matthews, River’s air assault has been relentless.  Although the Jets arrive a steller 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games off three straight losses, their offensive struggles with Smith, 75.1 rating at the helm will continue.  Look for the Chargers defense that has held opponents to only 97.3 rushing yards per game to slow a Jets rushing attack powering over 151 yards per game.  Like the Director look for San Diego to turn is sour record of 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in this series when playing off a win.

2014 Week 3 NFL Picks: 5* PATRIOTS -14, 4* Texans +1 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Raiders/PATRIOTS]  Of course this could be a trap…or not.   2002 seems like an eternity ago.  The Raiders arrive 1-5 ATS in their last five games sporting the 30th ranked Road passing and rushing attack.  Having righted itself last week in Minnesota, look for Brady, who has an uncharacteristic 78.9 rating will find his legs in the team’s home opener.  With its defense allowing 364.5 yards per game, look for Ridley, 3.7 yards per carry, to find his legs this week.  Although the Pats stumbled in Week 1, the defense is only allowinng 288.5 yards per game.

[Texans/GIANTS] A member of the Giants Nation, it is hard to see the Giants play like this.  However, the fact is, that Manning arrives a 69.2 rating and 4 interceptions.  The Texans Fitzpatrick arrives with a 118.4 rating.  While the Giants defense is allowing only 341.5 yards per game, their offense continues to sputter with only 269 yards per game.  For Giants fans like me, it will be hard to watch Foster, 4.4 yards per carry, run over big blue.  And if he is sidelined, it will be the passing attack of Johnson and Hopkins that proves too much. Nobody would be happier to be proved wrong.

 

2014 Week 2 NFL Picks: 5* Seahawks -3.5, 4* BRONCOS -13 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Seahawks/CHARGERS] Week 2 is always the week that we find out who is for real.   I am one that believes that the Seahawks are for real. Look for the CHARGERS rushing attack, that only powered 52 rushing yards in Arizona, to find little traction versus a Seahawks defense that allowed only 80 yards in its opener.  Particularly troubling for the Chargers is their defense is facing off with Wilson,  110.9 rating, after allowing over 400 yards in its opener.  The recent undefeated 0-4-1 historic record against the Seahawks will definitely be on their mind.

[Chiefs/BRONCOS] After getting blown out in Week 1, the Chiefs arrive as 13 point Underdogs; the largest spread over the last decade.  After an outstanding Week 1 performance, it is simply too hard to resist taking a BRONCOS team versus a injury-ridden Chiefs defense that allowed over 400 yards at Home in Week 1.  Manning powering a 111.9 rating it their opener by averaging over 12 yards per catch to all his leading receivers. Having lost by 35 points and 20 points in two of their last four visits to Denver, look for the Broncos’ stingy rushing defense that allowed only 54 yards in its opener to hold Charles down again, and turn their recent 1-4 record ATS around.

 

 

 

2014 Week 1 NFL Picks: 5* Niners -3.5, 4* Patriots -4 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Niners/COWBOYS] It is always risky to start the year off on the road. If there was ever a team to do it with, it is the San Francisco 49ers, who were only one step short of the Super Bowl last year. The Niners standing tall as one of the best Road teams in 2013 going 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 Road games. The Cowboys on the other hand enter 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and 6-13 ATS at Home. Look for the Niners to start on the ground with it top rushers averaging over 5.7 yards per carry in the Preseason. Among the many question marks for Dallas will be the return of Romo from surgery. While he had a 97.5 rating during the preseason, this is the real thing.

[Patriots/DOLPHINS] The Director has been shocked here before. The Patriots, who are 0-2 ATS in their most recent visits to Miami, hope to recapture the magic that allowed the to defeat the Fish by 14 points here in 2011. Brady will be looking for revenge for the 2013 loss her ATS that was one of two blemishes on a 6-2 run ATS in the second half of last season. Powering a rating of 123.8 on 9.2 yards per attempt, Brady looks like he is poised to be a contender again in 2014. The Fish, on the other hand, are still looking for a quarterback to run the show. Look for Wilfork to control Moreno, the Dolphins one big weapon.

2013 Week 17 5* NFL Pick: STEELERS -9 4* SAINTS -11

[Browns/STEELERS] Their first matchup lead the Browns and Steelers in opposite directions for the last quarter of the season. Winning by 16 points, the Steelers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games, and the Browns 1-4 ATS. With an outside chance at the playoffs, the home crowd will in rare form. Look for the Steelers defense, who held the Browns to only 2.5 yards per rush to stand tall again. With their own offense powering only 3.5 yards per rush, look for Roethlisberger, 93.7 rating, to take to the air early.

[Buccaneers/SAINTS] Tempted by the Panthers, the Saints have more on the line today versus a Buccaneers team that has lost by an average of 16 points in their last three losses. While going 1-4 ATS in their last five games, The Bucs will face Brees, 101.8 rating, and a Saints offense that is powering 32.9 points on 439.7 yards per game at Home. 2-5 ATS on the Road the Season, the Bucs offense, that is powering only 275 yards per game, 177.1 passing yards per game on the Road, will find this too tough a mountain to climb.