2014 Week 12 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals +7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/SEAHAWKS] Every week it is hard to believe that a team that is only averaging 79 yards per game can win.  However, that is exactly what the Cardinals are doing.  It could be because this same team is only allowing 17 points per game.  The real battle today is the Seahawks offense that is powering 174 rushing yards per game versus a stingy Cardinals defense that is allowing only 80 rushing yards per game. This same defense already cranking out 15 interceptions this season.  One thing that is too hard to resist is a Cardinals team that is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game versus a Seahawks team that is 1-5 ATS in their last six games.  Hard to believe that these opposing quarterback staffs enter with matching quarterback ratings.

2014 Week 11 NFL Picks: 5* Niners -3.5 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[49ers/GIANTS] While it kills me to say it, it is hard to resist a Niners team that is 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 Road games.  Although the Niners have been outscored by nearly 1 point per game this season, the Giants have been outscored by nearly 6; outscored by an average of nearly 13 points per game in giong 1-4 ATS in their last five games.  This game is a long way from the Giants big upset back in 2012 in San Francisco.  While the Niners offense has struggled in powering only 343 yards per game, the Giants continued battle with injuries and 27th ranked defense allowing over 400 yards per game should provide them plenty of opportunities.

2014 Week 8 NFL Picks: 5* Colts -3.5, 4* Texans -3.5 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Colts/STEELERS] Having fallen off the wagon against in Week 7, it is impossible to resist the Colts.  The Colts arrive 5-0 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by 18 points on nearly 500 yards per game.  While the rushing attack is only averaging 86.3 rushing yards per game this season, Luck, 110.5 rating, had already powered out 19 touchdowns.  Although Roethlisberger arrives with a 96 rating himself behind an offense averaging over 380 yards per game, the Steelers have struggled versus winning teams in 2014.  This game will hinge on the Colts defense that is allowing only a 26% 3rd down percentage this season.

[Texans/TITANS] With its offense only powering 320 yards per game, the TITANS will struggle against the Texans today.  Even though their defense is allowing nearly 400 yards per game, the return of Foster, 4.9 yards per carry, has put the Texans back on the right track.  Having faced two of the NFL elite over the last three weeks, look for the Texans to run over a Titans team that arrives 0-4-1 ATS in their last five Home games, and 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups with Houston.  While both of these defenses have struggled on third down, look for the Texans to have the upper hand versus a Titans defense that is also allowing over 360 yards per game.

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Steelers -6, 4* CHARGERS -6 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Steelers/JAGUARS] When you are on an 0-7 run ATS, you chase any victory you think you can get your hands on.  For that reason, we head to Jacksonville, where the JAGUARS, 0-4 ATS in 2014, and outscored by nearly 24 points per game in their last three games, will face a Steelers team that were shocked by the Bucs.  Managing only 279 yards per game to their opponents 451, it would appear an easy window for Rothlisberger, 99.4 rating, and his offense that is powering 412 yards per game to jump through to get back on track.  Look for Tomlin, who is 3-9 ATS in his NFL career in games versus winless opponents, including 0-5 SUATS his last five, to get back on track with The Director.

[Jets/CHARGERS]  Powering a 114.5 rating, Rivers looks like he has recaptured the magic that west coast buzzing.   While the Chargers, 4-0 ATS in 2014, have struggled on the ground without Matthews, River’s air assault has been relentless.  Although the Jets arrive a steller 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games off three straight losses, their offensive struggles with Smith, 75.1 rating at the helm will continue.  Look for the Chargers defense that has held opponents to only 97.3 rushing yards per game to slow a Jets rushing attack powering over 151 yards per game.  Like the Director look for San Diego to turn is sour record of 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in this series when playing off a win.

2014 Week 2 NFL Picks: 5* Seahawks -3.5, 4* BRONCOS -13 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Seahawks/CHARGERS] Week 2 is always the week that we find out who is for real.   I am one that believes that the Seahawks are for real. Look for the CHARGERS rushing attack, that only powered 52 rushing yards in Arizona, to find little traction versus a Seahawks defense that allowed only 80 yards in its opener.  Particularly troubling for the Chargers is their defense is facing off with Wilson,  110.9 rating, after allowing over 400 yards in its opener.  The recent undefeated 0-4-1 historic record against the Seahawks will definitely be on their mind.

[Chiefs/BRONCOS] After getting blown out in Week 1, the Chiefs arrive as 13 point Underdogs; the largest spread over the last decade.  After an outstanding Week 1 performance, it is simply too hard to resist taking a BRONCOS team versus a injury-ridden Chiefs defense that allowed over 400 yards at Home in Week 1.  Manning powering a 111.9 rating it their opener by averaging over 12 yards per catch to all his leading receivers. Having lost by 35 points and 20 points in two of their last four visits to Denver, look for the Broncos’ stingy rushing defense that allowed only 54 yards in its opener to hold Charles down again, and turn their recent 1-4 record ATS around.

 

 

 

2014 Week 1 NFL Picks: 5* Niners -3.5, 4* Patriots -4 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Niners/COWBOYS] It is always risky to start the year off on the road. If there was ever a team to do it with, it is the San Francisco 49ers, who were only one step short of the Super Bowl last year. The Niners standing tall as one of the best Road teams in 2013 going 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 Road games. The Cowboys on the other hand enter 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and 6-13 ATS at Home. Look for the Niners to start on the ground with it top rushers averaging over 5.7 yards per carry in the Preseason. Among the many question marks for Dallas will be the return of Romo from surgery. While he had a 97.5 rating during the preseason, this is the real thing.

[Patriots/DOLPHINS] The Director has been shocked here before. The Patriots, who are 0-2 ATS in their most recent visits to Miami, hope to recapture the magic that allowed the to defeat the Fish by 14 points here in 2011. Brady will be looking for revenge for the 2013 loss her ATS that was one of two blemishes on a 6-2 run ATS in the second half of last season. Powering a rating of 123.8 on 9.2 yards per attempt, Brady looks like he is poised to be a contender again in 2014. The Fish, on the other hand, are still looking for a quarterback to run the show. Look for Wilfork to control Moreno, the Dolphins one big weapon.

2013 Week 16 5* NFL Pick: CHARGERS -9 4* Broncos -10

[Broncos/TEXANS] The best thing that may have happened to the Broncos was the Chargers upset. Unsure which Texans squad will show up, the Broncos arrive 13-5 ATS versus losing teams over the last three seasons. Having made critical mistakes against San Diego, look for this game to be about Manning, 112.9, and his top ranked passing attack versus Houston’s 3rd ranked Home defense. The problem for the Texans, 2-8 ATS against conference opponents is their sputtering offense that has managed only 16.6 points per game in going 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Averaging less than 8 yards per pass in two of their last three games, look for the Texans to fall behind, and never catch up.

[Raiders/CHARGERS] The tide has definitely turned for the Chargers in 2013, who arrive 7-3 ATS over the last three seasons in the last four weeks of the season; powering 397 yards per game in going 3-2 ATS in their last five games. While the Raiders are also powering, they have gone 2-3 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 9 points per game during the run. With the Chargers defense allowing 6.3 yards per play, it will be vital for Rivers, 106.9 rating, and Matthews, 4.3 yards per carry, to get off to a fast start, and force the Raiders, who have allowed three of their last four opponents to over 13 per yards per pass, to play from behind.

2013 Week 15 5* NFL Pick: Patriots +2 4* Chiefs -5.5

[Patriots/DOLPHINS] It is rivalry week in Pro Football. There is little reason to believe that the Fish, 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven matchups, can repeat their 2011 upset. Instead, Brady, 88.3 rating, and a patriots offense that has averaged over 450 yards per game in their last three games, will exploit the Dolphins 30th ranked Home defense; the Dolphins powering only 252 yards in their matchup in New England. With Tannehill sacked 48 times this year, Look for the Patriots defense to generate turnovers, and help to turn their 1-6-1 run ATS on the Road around.

[Chiefs/RAIDERS] With the surprise loss on Thursday night, the Chiefs will have every reason to avoid falling into a trap this week. This game will be fought in the trenches between the Chiefs 4th ranked Road rushing attack and the Raiders 3rd ranked Home defense. Entering 1-4 ATS in their last five games, look for a Raiders offense, managing 20.3 points per game, to continue to struggle. Having snapped the 3 game slide ATS earlier this season, look for Smith, 18 touchdowns, and the Chiefs, who are outscoring their opponents by nearly 10 points per game, to take this one.

2013 Week 13 4* NFL Pick: PANTHERS -7

[Buccaneers/PANTHERS] While the Bucs may be 4-1 ATS in their last five games, there is no proof that they are any better than the the team that lost by 18 points to the Panthers at Home earlier this season. Newton, 88.3 rating, and the Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in allowing only 13.6 points per game. Look for the Panthers to go to the air against the Buccaneers’ 31st ranked Road passing defense. On the other side, look for Carolina’s #1 rated defense, and #2 Home defense that is only allowing 81.5 rushing yards per game, to slow Tampa’s Glennon, 91.6 rating, who has already powered 13 touchdowns.

2013 Week 13 5* NFL Pick: Steelers +3

[Steelers/RAVENS] Touted as one of the hottest teams, the Steelers have won five of their last seven games, averaging 29 points per game, after 0-4 start; including beating the Ravens 19-16 (-1.5) at Home in Week 7. 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore and 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 mathcups, the Steelers out rushed the Ravens 141-82 (season high in RY for Pitt) in Week 7 with two TDs, seven FGs. 6-1 ATS in their last seven Home games, the Ravens have allowed only one offensive TD on 22 drives in last two games. Knowing that AFC North Home Teams are 7-1 ATS in 2013, the visting Steelers will need to be perfect.