2014 Week 12 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals +7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/SEAHAWKS] Every week it is hard to believe that a team that is only averaging 79 yards per game can win.  However, that is exactly what the Cardinals are doing.  It could be because this same team is only allowing 17 points per game.  The real battle today is the Seahawks offense that is powering 174 rushing yards per game versus a stingy Cardinals defense that is allowing only 80 rushing yards per game. This same defense already cranking out 15 interceptions this season.  One thing that is too hard to resist is a Cardinals team that is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game versus a Seahawks team that is 1-5 ATS in their last six games.  Hard to believe that these opposing quarterback staffs enter with matching quarterback ratings.

2014 Week 7 NFL Picks: 5* Browns -4, 4* CHARGERS -3 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Browns/JAGUARS]  It is impossible to resist a streaking Browns team that is facing a JAGUARS team that has been outscored by nearly 18 points per game in their last five games.  The Jaguars opening the game 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten home games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.  The Browns arriving 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games are averaging nearly 30 points per game.

[Chiefs/CHARGERS ] Zapped again by the Raiders, the CHARGERS return home to face the struggling Chiefs.  While the Chiefs have taken three out of their last five games ATS, the Chargers arrive powering over 396 yards per game in their last five games.  Although the Chargers have continued to struggle on the ground, they arrive outscoring their opponents by nearly 12 points per game.  Having not seen a spread this low in their matchups in last five years, look for the Chargers to continue their 5-0 run SU versus the Chiefs in San Diego.

 

 

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Broncos -9.5, 4* Chargers -7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Broncos/JETS]  Having found our first big win in San Diego last week, it is difficult not to head to New York this week.  Even with the spread seeming to rise like a IPO, it is simply too hard to resist going against a Jets team with a quarterback controversy stemming from an average quarterback rating of 66.5i  While its defense is only allowing 320 yards per game, the are also allowing a 47.3 3rd down percentage.  Outscored by nearly 10 points in their last 5 games in managing only 15.8 points per game, the Broncos, who arrive outscoring their opponents by nearly 9 points on nearly 400 yards per game in their last 5 do not appear ready to fall in a trap given that they are led by Manning, 109.  While the Broncos rushing attack has struggled, and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, look Denver to head to to the air to continue the Jets run of 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

[Chargers/RAIDERS] Over the years, there have been plenty of stumbles for the Chargers in Oakland stadium.  Times were different, and the Raiders were not 0-5 ATS in their last five Home games, and not 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.  While the Chargers are only averaging 347 yards per game, they are the hottest team ATS at the moment at 5-0 ATS in outscoring their opponents by 14 points per game. With their quarterbacks averaging only 72.9 rating, they powering only 12.8 points per game in their last five games.  There is no mystery here that Rivers, 116.3 rating will head to the air.  The only mystery is how the Raiders can try to stop it.

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Steelers -6, 4* CHARGERS -6 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Steelers/JAGUARS] When you are on an 0-7 run ATS, you chase any victory you think you can get your hands on.  For that reason, we head to Jacksonville, where the JAGUARS, 0-4 ATS in 2014, and outscored by nearly 24 points per game in their last three games, will face a Steelers team that were shocked by the Bucs.  Managing only 279 yards per game to their opponents 451, it would appear an easy window for Rothlisberger, 99.4 rating, and his offense that is powering 412 yards per game to jump through to get back on track.  Look for Tomlin, who is 3-9 ATS in his NFL career in games versus winless opponents, including 0-5 SUATS his last five, to get back on track with The Director.

[Jets/CHARGERS]  Powering a 114.5 rating, Rivers looks like he has recaptured the magic that west coast buzzing.   While the Chargers, 4-0 ATS in 2014, have struggled on the ground without Matthews, River’s air assault has been relentless.  Although the Jets arrive a steller 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games off three straight losses, their offensive struggles with Smith, 75.1 rating at the helm will continue.  Look for the Chargers defense that has held opponents to only 97.3 rushing yards per game to slow a Jets rushing attack powering over 151 yards per game.  Like the Director look for San Diego to turn is sour record of 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in this series when playing off a win.

2014 Week 2 NFL Picks: 5* Seahawks -3.5, 4* BRONCOS -13 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Seahawks/CHARGERS] Week 2 is always the week that we find out who is for real.   I am one that believes that the Seahawks are for real. Look for the CHARGERS rushing attack, that only powered 52 rushing yards in Arizona, to find little traction versus a Seahawks defense that allowed only 80 yards in its opener.  Particularly troubling for the Chargers is their defense is facing off with Wilson,  110.9 rating, after allowing over 400 yards in its opener.  The recent undefeated 0-4-1 historic record against the Seahawks will definitely be on their mind.

[Chiefs/BRONCOS] After getting blown out in Week 1, the Chiefs arrive as 13 point Underdogs; the largest spread over the last decade.  After an outstanding Week 1 performance, it is simply too hard to resist taking a BRONCOS team versus a injury-ridden Chiefs defense that allowed over 400 yards at Home in Week 1.  Manning powering a 111.9 rating it their opener by averaging over 12 yards per catch to all his leading receivers. Having lost by 35 points and 20 points in two of their last four visits to Denver, look for the Broncos’ stingy rushing defense that allowed only 54 yards in its opener to hold Charles down again, and turn their recent 1-4 record ATS around.

 

 

 

2013 Week 15 5* NFL Pick: Patriots +2 4* Chiefs -5.5

[Patriots/DOLPHINS] It is rivalry week in Pro Football. There is little reason to believe that the Fish, 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven matchups, can repeat their 2011 upset. Instead, Brady, 88.3 rating, and a patriots offense that has averaged over 450 yards per game in their last three games, will exploit the Dolphins 30th ranked Home defense; the Dolphins powering only 252 yards in their matchup in New England. With Tannehill sacked 48 times this year, Look for the Patriots defense to generate turnovers, and help to turn their 1-6-1 run ATS on the Road around.

[Chiefs/RAIDERS] With the surprise loss on Thursday night, the Chiefs will have every reason to avoid falling into a trap this week. This game will be fought in the trenches between the Chiefs 4th ranked Road rushing attack and the Raiders 3rd ranked Home defense. Entering 1-4 ATS in their last five games, look for a Raiders offense, managing 20.3 points per game, to continue to struggle. Having snapped the 3 game slide ATS earlier this season, look for Smith, 18 touchdowns, and the Chiefs, who are outscoring their opponents by nearly 10 points per game, to take this one.

2013 Week 13 5* NFL Pick: Steelers +3

[Steelers/RAVENS] Touted as one of the hottest teams, the Steelers have won five of their last seven games, averaging 29 points per game, after 0-4 start; including beating the Ravens 19-16 (-1.5) at Home in Week 7. 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore and 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 mathcups, the Steelers out rushed the Ravens 141-82 (season high in RY for Pitt) in Week 7 with two TDs, seven FGs. 6-1 ATS in their last seven Home games, the Ravens have allowed only one offensive TD on 22 drives in last two games. Knowing that AFC North Home Teams are 7-1 ATS in 2013, the visting Steelers will need to be perfect.

2013 Week 11 5* NFL Pick: GIANTS -3.5 4* Chargers -3

[Packers/GIANTS] 3-2 ATS in their last five games, the Giants have now outscored their opponents by nearly a point per game during the run. Brown averaging a team leading 3.8 yards per carry in his return. Happy to be facing Tolzien, the Giants know the Home team is 2-7 SU in their last nine matchups with the Packers; NFC East Non Dive Home Favorites are 4-5 ATS; NFC North Road Dogs are 2-3 ATS.

[Chargers/DOLPHINS] San Diego is 2-3 SU on road, with three of five games decided by 3 points, or in OT. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five games in being outscored by nearly 3 points per game, is on short work week after losing to winless Bucs on Monday, and has major off-field distractions. While Chargers are only 2-3 ATS in their last five games, Rivers, 106.5 rating, arrive with an offense powering over 400 yards per game. AFC West Non Div Road teams are 8-3 ATS; AFC East Home teams are 10-3 ATS.

2013 Week 9 5* NFL Pick: Saints -5.5 Chiefs -5 4* Seahawks -15.5

[Saints/JETS] Brees, 109.2 rating, and the Saints are a stellar 10-3 ATS in November. Having lost by 40 last week, the Jets, 1-5 ATS in November, 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring fewer than 15 points, will hope Geno Smith, 71.6 rating, can bounce back. Sacked 28 times, and having thrown one TD and nine interceptions in their losses, Smith, will struggle to keep up with the Saints, who averaged over 32 points per game in their last five games.

[Chiefs/BILLS] Given the Chiefs 0-9 run ATS versus the AFC East, everyone is calling for an upset today. Experts believe that the Bills, 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss, will take down the tenacious Chiefs defense that is holding opposing offenses to a league-low 12.3 points per game. While the Chiefs are 4-11 ATS against teams with losing records, they are on fire on the Road this year.

[Buccaneers/SEAHAWKS] Having struggled badly on offense in a 14-9 win over the St. Louis Rams on Monday night, totaling just 135 yards, the Home crowd will be happy to bounce back against the winless Bucs, who will be commanded by Glennon, 78 rating. Averaging less than 300 yards per game, and less than 20 points per game, the Bucs will continue their recent 0-4 run ATS versus the NFC against the Seahawks, who are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games on turf with a defense allowing just 189 yards per game.

2013 Week 8 MNF 5* NFL Pick: Seahawks -13 #nflonedotcom

[Seahawks/RAMS] If only Bradford had not been injured. Instead the Seahawks, 3-1 ATS Away, 5-0-1 ATS on Monday Night, arrive to face off with the Rams, who arrive 1-4 ATS as Underdogs this year; one of only a a handful teams to ever arrive Underdogs of 11 or more points on Monday Night. Former Jets quarterback, Clemons, who arrives with a 62.2 career passer rating, will be unable to go toe-to-toe with Wilson, 97.2 rating, and Lynch, who has already powered an impressive 578 yards. Tied for 2nd at +7 in turnover ratio, look for early mistakes by Clemons and Co to put this one out of reach.