2014 Week 12 NFL Picks: 5* Giants -2.5 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Giants/JAGUARS] There are few games that big blue nation can get excited about this season, and this is one of them.  While the Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and 1-4 ATS in their last four games on the Road, they are still in a better position to win than the Jaguars, who are only managing 14 points per game in being outscored by 13 points per game this season; the Jaguars 2-10-2 ATS in their last fourteen games.  With both of these teams struggling on the ground, and allowing nearly 400 yards per game on defense, look for plenty of big plays to the Giants new star Beckham Jr., 14.9 yards per catch.  While Manning, 88 rating, has stumbled when it counted the last two weeks, look for him to take advantage of a Jaguars defense that is allowing a 43.3 third down conversion percentage.

2014 Week 12 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals +7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/SEAHAWKS] Every week it is hard to believe that a team that is only averaging 79 yards per game can win.  However, that is exactly what the Cardinals are doing.  It could be because this same team is only allowing 17 points per game.  The real battle today is the Seahawks offense that is powering 174 rushing yards per game versus a stingy Cardinals defense that is allowing only 80 rushing yards per game. This same defense already cranking out 15 interceptions this season.  One thing that is too hard to resist is a Cardinals team that is 5-0 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game versus a Seahawks team that is 1-5 ATS in their last six games.  Hard to believe that these opposing quarterback staffs enter with matching quarterback ratings.

2014 Week 9 NFL Picks: 5* Cardinals -1, 4* Chiefs -9 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Cardinals/COWBOYS] Losing Romo in the biggest upset of the year spells trouble for a Cowboys team facing a streaking Cardinals team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  6-1 SU in their last seven games, the time is now for the Cardinals to turn their 0-5 record ATS in their last five games in Dallas.   The Cowboys will suffer the same fate of so many this year against the #1 ranked Cardinals rush defense.

[Jets/CHIEFS] It is hard to resist a CHIEFS team that is 4-1 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by over 14 points per game.  With a balanced offense, it is the defense that is allowing less than 307 yards per game, including only 195.7 passing yards per game.  Arrowhead will too large a hill to climb for a visiting Jets team that is powering only 16 points per game in their last five games.

2014 Week 8 NFL Picks: 5* Colts -3.5, 4* Texans -3.5 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Colts/STEELERS] Having fallen off the wagon against in Week 7, it is impossible to resist the Colts.  The Colts arrive 5-0 ATS in their last five games in outscoring their opponents by 18 points on nearly 500 yards per game.  While the rushing attack is only averaging 86.3 rushing yards per game this season, Luck, 110.5 rating, had already powered out 19 touchdowns.  Although Roethlisberger arrives with a 96 rating himself behind an offense averaging over 380 yards per game, the Steelers have struggled versus winning teams in 2014.  This game will hinge on the Colts defense that is allowing only a 26% 3rd down percentage this season.

[Texans/TITANS] With its offense only powering 320 yards per game, the TITANS will struggle against the Texans today.  Even though their defense is allowing nearly 400 yards per game, the return of Foster, 4.9 yards per carry, has put the Texans back on the right track.  Having faced two of the NFL elite over the last three weeks, look for the Texans to run over a Titans team that arrives 0-4-1 ATS in their last five Home games, and 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups with Houston.  While both of these defenses have struggled on third down, look for the Texans to have the upper hand versus a Titans defense that is also allowing over 360 yards per game.

2014 Week 2 NFL Picks: 5* Seahawks -3.5, 4* BRONCOS -13 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Seahawks/CHARGERS] Week 2 is always the week that we find out who is for real.   I am one that believes that the Seahawks are for real. Look for the CHARGERS rushing attack, that only powered 52 rushing yards in Arizona, to find little traction versus a Seahawks defense that allowed only 80 yards in its opener.  Particularly troubling for the Chargers is their defense is facing off with Wilson,  110.9 rating, after allowing over 400 yards in its opener.  The recent undefeated 0-4-1 historic record against the Seahawks will definitely be on their mind.

[Chiefs/BRONCOS] After getting blown out in Week 1, the Chiefs arrive as 13 point Underdogs; the largest spread over the last decade.  After an outstanding Week 1 performance, it is simply too hard to resist taking a BRONCOS team versus a injury-ridden Chiefs defense that allowed over 400 yards at Home in Week 1.  Manning powering a 111.9 rating it their opener by averaging over 12 yards per catch to all his leading receivers. Having lost by 35 points and 20 points in two of their last four visits to Denver, look for the Broncos’ stingy rushing defense that allowed only 54 yards in its opener to hold Charles down again, and turn their recent 1-4 record ATS around.




2013 Week 16 5* NFL Pick: CHARGERS -9 4* Broncos -10

[Broncos/TEXANS] The best thing that may have happened to the Broncos was the Chargers upset. Unsure which Texans squad will show up, the Broncos arrive 13-5 ATS versus losing teams over the last three seasons. Having made critical mistakes against San Diego, look for this game to be about Manning, 112.9, and his top ranked passing attack versus Houston’s 3rd ranked Home defense. The problem for the Texans, 2-8 ATS against conference opponents is their sputtering offense that has managed only 16.6 points per game in going 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Averaging less than 8 yards per pass in two of their last three games, look for the Texans to fall behind, and never catch up.

[Raiders/CHARGERS] The tide has definitely turned for the Chargers in 2013, who arrive 7-3 ATS over the last three seasons in the last four weeks of the season; powering 397 yards per game in going 3-2 ATS in their last five games. While the Raiders are also powering, they have gone 2-3 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 9 points per game during the run. With the Chargers defense allowing 6.3 yards per play, it will be vital for Rivers, 106.9 rating, and Matthews, 4.3 yards per carry, to get off to a fast start, and force the Raiders, who have allowed three of their last four opponents to over 13 per yards per pass, to play from behind.

2013 Week 13 5* NFL Pick: Steelers +3

[Steelers/RAVENS] Touted as one of the hottest teams, the Steelers have won five of their last seven games, averaging 29 points per game, after 0-4 start; including beating the Ravens 19-16 (-1.5) at Home in Week 7. 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore and 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 mathcups, the Steelers out rushed the Ravens 141-82 (season high in RY for Pitt) in Week 7 with two TDs, seven FGs. 6-1 ATS in their last seven Home games, the Ravens have allowed only one offensive TD on 22 drives in last two games. Knowing that AFC North Home Teams are 7-1 ATS in 2013, the visting Steelers will need to be perfect.

2013 Week 11 5* NFL Pick: GIANTS -3.5 4* Chargers -3

[Packers/GIANTS] 3-2 ATS in their last five games, the Giants have now outscored their opponents by nearly a point per game during the run. Brown averaging a team leading 3.8 yards per carry in his return. Happy to be facing Tolzien, the Giants know the Home team is 2-7 SU in their last nine matchups with the Packers; NFC East Non Dive Home Favorites are 4-5 ATS; NFC North Road Dogs are 2-3 ATS.

[Chargers/DOLPHINS] San Diego is 2-3 SU on road, with three of five games decided by 3 points, or in OT. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last five games in being outscored by nearly 3 points per game, is on short work week after losing to winless Bucs on Monday, and has major off-field distractions. While Chargers are only 2-3 ATS in their last five games, Rivers, 106.5 rating, arrive with an offense powering over 400 yards per game. AFC West Non Div Road teams are 8-3 ATS; AFC East Home teams are 10-3 ATS.

2013 Week 4 5* NFL Picks: CHIEFS -3.5 4* Colts -8 #nflonedotcom

[Giants/CHIEFS] A die hard Giants fan, it pains me to write this. However, arriving 0-6 ATS on the Road, allowing 382 yards per game in 2013, Manning, 70.5 rating, will need a miracle turn around from its rushing attack, averaging only 44.3 yards per game to avoid a blow out versus the Chiefs, who are outscoring their opponents by 12 ppg on the most balanced attack in the NFL.

[Colts/JAGUARS] Could the Giant have had Bradshaw and Richardson? The Colts do. With its defense allowing only 254 total yards and forcing two turnovers in Frisco, look for the Jags, powering only 9 ppg on 230 yards per game, who are most recently 0-4 ATS in their last four games to continue their struggles versus Luck, 92.7 rating, powering 352 yards per game.

2012 Week 14 5* NFL Picks: Falcons -4, COLTS -3 #nflonedotcom

It is interesting that so many experts believe that today is the day that the Falcons will fall. The CAROLINA PANTHERS entering 1-4 ATS, 0-5 SU versus the Atlanta Falcons in their last five matchups. Although the Falcons have struggled on the ground in powering only 86 rushing yards per game in their last five games, Ryan’s passing attack has been stellar at 286 passing yards per game during the run. With the Panthers, 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five home games, arriving allowing 128 rushing yards per game, Turner may just find his groove today. Ranked at the bottom tier at home, the Panthers offense will struggle against Atlanta’s passing defense that has bent but not broken for points. A Panther fumble may just may be the difference in this one.

It has taken me until week 14 to get on the bandwagon, but against the Tennessee Titans, who arrive 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games, it is hard to resist getting on Luck’s bandwagon this week. While the public has been focused on the Colts 7th ranked Home Passing attack, it is actually the Home passing defense, allowing only 216.8 yards per game that has been key to the Colts 4-1 run ATS. They will be again today versus the 28th ranked Road passing attack of Tennessee. Having allowed 457 yards, including 171 on the ground, in their matchup earlier this season, there seems little evidence that the Titans will be able turn their ‘luck’.