2012 Week 12 5* NFL Pick: Steelers -1

Even with the loss of Roethlisberger and Leftwich, the Pittsburgh Steelers do not lose a step. The good news for the Steelers is that they arrive in Cleveland on a 16-1 run SU versus the BROWNS; 2-2 ATS over the last two years, the Steelers have not been favorites of less than 3 points since 2003. With the Browns powering one of the worst ranked offenses in the NFL, and averaging only 17 points per game in their last five games, look for this one to be a ground battle with Weeden, 70.3 rating, eventually throwing the big interception versus the Steelers #1 ranked Road passing defense that is only sacrificing 185.2 yards per game.

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Week 9 Bye Trends: Last Chance

As The Director readies his Week 9 picks, our resident experts check in with their outlooks and predictions.

One thing is for sure, our friend’s Bye Trends is the golden ticket. Thus, The Director encourages you to take note as he prepares his Key NFL Trends:

Week 9: Sunday, November 2nd

OVER & JACKSONVILLE ATS at Cincinnati
Reason…Cincinnati’s opponent in the post-bye week game is on a 6-1 SU & ATS run and the OVER shares the same record in the L7.

DENVER ATS vs. Miami
Reason…The Broncos have been consistently strong coming out of the open date, going 15-3 SU & 14-3-1 ATS since ’92.

CLEVELAND ATS vs. Baltimore
Reason…The Ravens have lost five of their last six, both SU & ATS before the open date after winning their previous five.

UNDER – Baltimore at Cleveland
Reason…The UNDER is on a run 5-1 in Baltimore’s L6 pre-bye week games.

TAMPA BAY ATS at Kansas City
Reason…Since arriving in Tampa in 2002, John Gruden’s Buccaneers team has not lost a pre-bye week game, going 6-0 SU & ATS.

DALLAS ATS at NY Giants
Reason…The Cowboys own the league’s best straight up mark overall in pre-week games at 14-4 and are second with a 13-5 ATS mark. In the last 10 years, they are 9-1 ATS.

OVER – Houston at Minnesota
Reason…Totals have been the wager of choice for savvy bettors in pre- & post bye week Minnesota games. Since ’98, the OVER is 17-5 in those contests.

Stumble It!

NFL Regular Season Week 4: The 3 Worst Rated Defense and Offense

As I begin to write my Key NFL Trends column, the worst rated offenses and defenses also come to mind. It is easy to see why I have placed the defense first:

NFL Defense
32 St. Louis Rams 38.7 ppg on 456.7 total yards
31 Detroit Lions 37 ppg on 430.3 total yards
30 Houston Texans 34.5 ppg on 456.7 total yards

NFL Offense
32 Cleveland Browns 8.7 ppg on 194 total yards
31 St. Louis Rams 9.7 ppg on 202.3 total yards
30 Kansas City Chiefs 10.7 ppg on 258.3 total yards

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NFL Regular Season Week 4: The 5 Worst Rated NFL Teams ATS

As I sat and watched the NY Jets and Brett Favre get routed last night, I realized it was critical as my record slid to 5-5 ATS that we get back to the basics in the Week 4. Unlike many that look at the top rated teams, it seems more powerful to look at the bottom rated teams ATS:

32 St. Louis Rams 0-3
31 Detroit Lions 0-3
30 Houston Texans 0-2
(Interestingly there are 12 teams tied at 1-2 I have used my discretion to choose the other two worst rated teams)
29 Cincinnati Bengals 1-2
28 Cleveland Browns 1-2

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