2012 Week 15 4* NFL Picks: Giants +1 #newyorkgiantsclubhouse

If the Panthers proved anything, they proved that the ATLANTA FALCONS are already thinking playoffs; 1-4 ATS in their last five games in powering 375 yards per game. If the Redskins have done anything for the Giants, who are outscoring their last five opponents by an average of 6 points per game, it has forced them to play at their best during the stretch run. The good news for the Giants is that the Falcons have been relying on an air attack; the air continuing to be the trap that the Giants are using for victory. Ranked #1 in sacks, look for the Giants defense to pressure Ryan from the opening bell. While the passing attack remains the Giants offensive pillar, look for them to take advantage of the Falcons 25th ranked Home Rushing defense with Wilson, 5.1 yards per attempt, who is not only setting up Manning’s play action pass, but leading their special teams at top of the pack. Look for the Giants, who are averaging nearly +2 in turnovers over their last three games to capitalize on a Falcons offense that has been careless with turnovers of late for victory.

2012 Week 14 5* NFL Picks: Falcons -4, COLTS -3 #nflonedotcom

It is interesting that so many experts believe that today is the day that the Falcons will fall. The CAROLINA PANTHERS entering 1-4 ATS, 0-5 SU versus the Atlanta Falcons in their last five matchups. Although the Falcons have struggled on the ground in powering only 86 rushing yards per game in their last five games, Ryan’s passing attack has been stellar at 286 passing yards per game during the run. With the Panthers, 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five home games, arriving allowing 128 rushing yards per game, Turner may just find his groove today. Ranked at the bottom tier at home, the Panthers offense will struggle against Atlanta’s passing defense that has bent but not broken for points. A Panther fumble may just may be the difference in this one.

It has taken me until week 14 to get on the bandwagon, but against the Tennessee Titans, who arrive 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games, it is hard to resist getting on Luck’s bandwagon this week. While the public has been focused on the Colts 7th ranked Home Passing attack, it is actually the Home passing defense, allowing only 216.8 yards per game that has been key to the Colts 4-1 run ATS. They will be again today versus the 28th ranked Road passing attack of Tennessee. Having allowed 457 yards, including 171 on the ground, in their matchup earlier this season, there seems little evidence that the Titans will be able turn their ‘luck’.

2012 Week 9 4* NFL Pick: FALCONS -3.5

Reeling from last week’s loss, the Dallas Cowboys head into Atlanta. It could be because the Cowboys defense is allowing only 291 yards per game that Joe Public continues to drive the spread down. Of course, it is the ATLANTA FALCONS that are 7-0 SU on a +11 turnover ratio. Even though the Falcons defense is allowing 5.1 yards per rushing yards per attempt, they are only allowing 18.6 points per game. Given that the Falcons are averaging 28.7 points per game, and the Cowboys, 4-13 ATS versus Conference opponents over the last two seasons, are only powering 19.6 points per game, the public appears to be distracted by the Cowboys two Road wins. They may be blinded by the Falcons 1-2 record ATS at Home in 2012. Whey they are missing is that the Falcons are led by Ryan, 103 rating, who has already amassed 17 touchdowns. Having touted it in my column last week, their efficiency will be on display again. Although the Falcons’ running backs average less than 4 yards per carry, the team is powering a 46.6% 3rd down percentage. Having put the Eagles season on ice, look for the Falcons to take advantage of the Cowboys 31st ranked touchdown ratio. Allowing only 1.86 points in the first quarter, expect the Falcons to jump out to an early lead, and never look back.

2012 Week 8 4* NFL Pick: Falcons +1.5

It is interesting to me that every expert, but not the betting public believes that the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES will do what other have not, and beat the 6-0 Atlanta Falcons, who are 7-3 in their last ten Road games. Could it be because the Eagles are 5-0-1 Against the Spread (‘ATS’) in their last six games versus the Falcons? Maybe it is because the Eagles are averaging over 375 offensive yards per game? Running one of the most efficient offenses in averaging 28.5 points per game on just over 300 yards per game, the Falcons Ryan will need to be effective on their first two downs versus an Eagles team that is allowing only a 29.1% 3rd down conversion percentage. Allowing 21.8 points per game, the Eagles let go of their defensive coordinator. Interesting, given that their offense has only mustered 17.2 points per game in its last five games. Ranked #3 in their second quarter scoring, look for the Falcons to stave off the crowd in the first quarter, and generate in insurmountable lead by halftime.

2012 Week 8 5* NFL Pick: Giants -2.5

While there are many that mock the DALLAS COWBOYS, I will wait until the New York Giants take this series back from a Cowboys defense that is holding its opponents to only 187.3 passing yards per game. The good news for Giants fans is that the Giants are 7-1 in their last 8 Road games and 4-1 Against the Spread (‘ATS’) in their last five games in Dallas. The Road team going 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series. The Cowboys offense has been in a steep decline since the opening day brilliance of Romo and Ogletree in averaging only 17.8 points game in their last five games. The key to the opening day victory was the ball control by Dallas. With the Giants averaging over 29 points per game in its last five games, competing with them will be a tall order for the Cowboys, whose rushing attack is powering only 88 rushing yards per game in its last five games. Averaging only 2.3 points in the first quarter, Romo, who is averaging 277 passing yards per game, will surely go to the air early to face a Giants defense that is devouring its recent opponents with the interception; ranked #3 with 2.57 turnovers per game. Like its other recent opponents, the Cowboys, 0-5 ATS in its last five Home games, will try to stop a Giants offense averaging over 400 yards per game. Bolstered by the #1 ranked offensive line allowing only .86 sacks per game, Manning’s #3 passing attack that is powering 295 yards per game will exploit the play action off either Bradshaw and Brown, and never look back.