2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Broncos -9.5, 4* Chargers -7 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Broncos/JETS]  Having found our first big win in San Diego last week, it is difficult not to head to New York this week.  Even with the spread seeming to rise like a IPO, it is simply too hard to resist going against a Jets team with a quarterback controversy stemming from an average quarterback rating of 66.5i  While its defense is only allowing 320 yards per game, the are also allowing a 47.3 3rd down percentage.  Outscored by nearly 10 points in their last 5 games in managing only 15.8 points per game, the Broncos, who arrive outscoring their opponents by nearly 9 points on nearly 400 yards per game in their last 5 do not appear ready to fall in a trap given that they are led by Manning, 109.  While the Broncos rushing attack has struggled, and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, look Denver to head to to the air to continue the Jets run of 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.

[Chargers/RAIDERS] Over the years, there have been plenty of stumbles for the Chargers in Oakland stadium.  Times were different, and the Raiders were not 0-5 ATS in their last five Home games, and not 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.  While the Chargers are only averaging 347 yards per game, they are the hottest team ATS at the moment at 5-0 ATS in outscoring their opponents by 14 points per game. With their quarterbacks averaging only 72.9 rating, they powering only 12.8 points per game in their last five games.  There is no mystery here that Rivers, 116.3 rating will head to the air.  The only mystery is how the Raiders can try to stop it.

2014 Week 5 NFL Picks: 5* Steelers -6, 4* CHARGERS -6 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Steelers/JAGUARS] When you are on an 0-7 run ATS, you chase any victory you think you can get your hands on.  For that reason, we head to Jacksonville, where the JAGUARS, 0-4 ATS in 2014, and outscored by nearly 24 points per game in their last three games, will face a Steelers team that were shocked by the Bucs.  Managing only 279 yards per game to their opponents 451, it would appear an easy window for Rothlisberger, 99.4 rating, and his offense that is powering 412 yards per game to jump through to get back on track.  Look for Tomlin, who is 3-9 ATS in his NFL career in games versus winless opponents, including 0-5 SUATS his last five, to get back on track with The Director.

[Jets/CHARGERS]  Powering a 114.5 rating, Rivers looks like he has recaptured the magic that west coast buzzing.   While the Chargers, 4-0 ATS in 2014, have struggled on the ground without Matthews, River’s air assault has been relentless.  Although the Jets arrive a steller 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS mark in games off three straight losses, their offensive struggles with Smith, 75.1 rating at the helm will continue.  Look for the Chargers defense that has held opponents to only 97.3 rushing yards per game to slow a Jets rushing attack powering over 151 yards per game.  Like the Director look for San Diego to turn is sour record of 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in this series when playing off a win.

2014 Week 4 NFL Picks: 5* Falcons -3, 4* Saints -3 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Falcons/VIKINGS]  On an 0-4 streak, The Director looks to turn the tide in the South.  Believing the Falcons are not looking ahead to Big Blue, look for the Falcons, who are outscoring their opponents by over 10 points per game in 2014 on over 455 yards per game, to have their way with the Vikings, whose quarterbacks arrive with a 69.6 rating.  Look for Ryan, 105.1 rating, and a rushing attack averaging 4.6 yards per carry to find cracks in a Vikings defense that is allowing only 335 yards per game.  With Peterson sidelined, look for the Vikings offense to struggle to find ways to exploit the weak Falcons defense allowing 387 yards per game.

[Saints/COWBOYS] If Payton didn’t have already have an advantage, the addition of Ryan should allow them to be a step ahead as they look to right the ship in Dallas; winning their last matchup by 32 points in 2013.  Although the Saints arrive 1-2 ATS, in outscoring their opponents by only 2 points per game, look for their high-flying offense powering 421.7 yards per game to be too much for a Cowboys team that arrives 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Home games.  While Romo, 86.1 rating, has struggled in he big game, Brees, 99.1 rating, seems built for prime time television.  Short Ingram, look for Brees to methodically move down the field to Graham, and hit the big play to Colston to be step ahead.

2014 Week 3 NFL Picks: 5* PATRIOTS -14, 4* Texans +1 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Raiders/PATRIOTS]  Of course this could be a trap…or not.   2002 seems like an eternity ago.  The Raiders arrive 1-5 ATS in their last five games sporting the 30th ranked Road passing and rushing attack.  Having righted itself last week in Minnesota, look for Brady, who has an uncharacteristic 78.9 rating will find his legs in the team’s home opener.  With its defense allowing 364.5 yards per game, look for Ridley, 3.7 yards per carry, to find his legs this week.  Although the Pats stumbled in Week 1, the defense is only allowinng 288.5 yards per game.

[Texans/GIANTS] A member of the Giants Nation, it is hard to see the Giants play like this.  However, the fact is, that Manning arrives a 69.2 rating and 4 interceptions.  The Texans Fitzpatrick arrives with a 118.4 rating.  While the Giants defense is allowing only 341.5 yards per game, their offense continues to sputter with only 269 yards per game.  For Giants fans like me, it will be hard to watch Foster, 4.4 yards per carry, run over big blue.  And if he is sidelined, it will be the passing attack of Johnson and Hopkins that proves too much. Nobody would be happier to be proved wrong.

 

2014 Week 2 NFL Picks: 5* Seahawks -3.5, 4* BRONCOS -13 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Seahawks/CHARGERS] Week 2 is always the week that we find out who is for real.   I am one that believes that the Seahawks are for real. Look for the CHARGERS rushing attack, that only powered 52 rushing yards in Arizona, to find little traction versus a Seahawks defense that allowed only 80 yards in its opener.  Particularly troubling for the Chargers is their defense is facing off with Wilson,  110.9 rating, after allowing over 400 yards in its opener.  The recent undefeated 0-4-1 historic record against the Seahawks will definitely be on their mind.

[Chiefs/BRONCOS] After getting blown out in Week 1, the Chiefs arrive as 13 point Underdogs; the largest spread over the last decade.  After an outstanding Week 1 performance, it is simply too hard to resist taking a BRONCOS team versus a injury-ridden Chiefs defense that allowed over 400 yards at Home in Week 1.  Manning powering a 111.9 rating it their opener by averaging over 12 yards per catch to all his leading receivers. Having lost by 35 points and 20 points in two of their last four visits to Denver, look for the Broncos’ stingy rushing defense that allowed only 54 yards in its opener to hold Charles down again, and turn their recent 1-4 record ATS around.

 

 

 

2014 Week 1 NFL Picks: 5* Niners -3.5, 4* Patriots -4 #freenflpicks #nflpick

[Niners/COWBOYS] It is always risky to start the year off on the road. If there was ever a team to do it with, it is the San Francisco 49ers, who were only one step short of the Super Bowl last year. The Niners standing tall as one of the best Road teams in 2013 going 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 Road games. The Cowboys on the other hand enter 1-4 ATS in their last five games, and 6-13 ATS at Home. Look for the Niners to start on the ground with it top rushers averaging over 5.7 yards per carry in the Preseason. Among the many question marks for Dallas will be the return of Romo from surgery. While he had a 97.5 rating during the preseason, this is the real thing.

[Patriots/DOLPHINS] The Director has been shocked here before. The Patriots, who are 0-2 ATS in their most recent visits to Miami, hope to recapture the magic that allowed the to defeat the Fish by 14 points here in 2011. Brady will be looking for revenge for the 2013 loss her ATS that was one of two blemishes on a 6-2 run ATS in the second half of last season. Powering a rating of 123.8 on 9.2 yards per attempt, Brady looks like he is poised to be a contender again in 2014. The Fish, on the other hand, are still looking for a quarterback to run the show. Look for Wilfork to control Moreno, the Dolphins one big weapon.

2013 Week 17 5* NFL Pick: STEELERS -9 4* SAINTS -11

[Browns/STEELERS] Their first matchup lead the Browns and Steelers in opposite directions for the last quarter of the season. Winning by 16 points, the Steelers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games, and the Browns 1-4 ATS. With an outside chance at the playoffs, the home crowd will in rare form. Look for the Steelers defense, who held the Browns to only 2.5 yards per rush to stand tall again. With their own offense powering only 3.5 yards per rush, look for Roethlisberger, 93.7 rating, to take to the air early.

[Buccaneers/SAINTS] Tempted by the Panthers, the Saints have more on the line today versus a Buccaneers team that has lost by an average of 16 points in their last three losses. While going 1-4 ATS in their last five games, The Bucs will face Brees, 101.8 rating, and a Saints offense that is powering 32.9 points on 439.7 yards per game at Home. 2-5 ATS on the Road the Season, the Bucs offense, that is powering only 275 yards per game, 177.1 passing yards per game on the Road, will find this too tough a mountain to climb.