2012 Week 4 NFL Picks: 5* FALCONS -7, Giants +1.5, 4* Patriots -4

September has been a month to remember for the Falcons, who arrive on a 12-3 run ATS. 3-0 ATS at Home versus the Panthers over the last three seasons, the Falcons have powered 30 points per game in those matchups. The Falcons are outscoring their opponents by 15 points per game in 2012. Matt Ryan powering an impressive 114 quarterback rating. This spells trouble for a struggling Panthers offense that is averaging only 17.3 points per game; managing only 15+ points per game on the Road over the last two seasons versus the Falcons. Even though the Panther are average 6.6 yards per play, Newton’s tendency for the big interception, and a rushing attack putting up only 96.3 rushing yards per game will continue to be their achilles heal today.
FALCONS -7

It is just too hard to resist. Sure it is unbelievable that the Bills are 2-1 ATS by outscoring their opponents by over 3 points per game on 29.3 points per game. With their season on the line, look for the Patriots, who themselves are averaging over 27 points per game on 391 yards per game to continue their 4-1 streak ATS in Buffalo. Having lost the 34 to 31 shoot out in 2011, the unexpected loss of Spiller, 9.3 yards per rush, leave Fitzpatrick flinging for the fences.
Patriots -4

There are only 3 teams that are 0-3 ATS and the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES are one of them. While the Eagles enter 5-1 ATS in their six matchups with the Giants, and 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four games in New York, the tide is ripe to turn. Although the public is down on the Eagles, who have averaged only 15.7 points per game, Vick’s offense is actually averaging over 416 yards per game. Their defense allowing only a 34.5% 3rd Down percentage. The bad news for the Eagles is that the Giants are actually powering one of the league’s best 31.3 points on 426 yards per game. It is all in the Bs. Brown averaging 5.6 yards per rush, Bennett with 12.3 yards per catch, and Barden is putting up 16.2 yards per catch. 9-2 ATS as Underdogs and 9-2 ATS versus winning teams over the last 2 seasons, the Giants keep their streak alive.
Giants +1.5

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  1. LOSER>>Falcons 30-PANTHERS 28>>(Sports Network) – Matt Bryant made a 40-yard field goal with five seconds remaining and the Atlanta Falcons stayed perfect with a 30-28 victory over the Carolina Panthers. Trailing 28-27, the Falcons took over from their own 1-yard line with 59 seconds remaining. On the first play, Roddy White hauled in a 59-yard pass. A defensive pass interference penalty put the ball at the Carolina 35. Matt Ryan completed two passes before Bryant kicked the game-winning field goal. Ryan completed 25-of-40 passes for 369 yards, three touchdowns and an interception for the Falcons (4-0), who are off to their first 4-0 start since 2004. White caught eight passes for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Michael Turner carried the ball 13 times for 103 yards and hauled in three passes for 68 yards and a score.>>WINNER>>Patriots 52-BILLS 28>>Tom Brady threw three touchdown passes and was backed by a potent ground attack as the New England Patriots dominated the second half on their way to a 52-28 win over the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The prospect of their first three-game losing streak in nearly a decade seemed very likely with the Patriots trailing by 14 in the third quarter. But New England produced touchdowns on six of its final seven possessions to stun a Buffalo team that has lost 22 of the last 24 meetings in the series. Brady ended with 340 passing yards for the Patriots (2-2), while the tandem of rookie free agent Brandon Bolden and second-year running back Stevan Ridley carved up the Bills’ defense. Bolden had 137 yards and one touchdown on 16 carries and Ridley rushed 22 times for 106 yards with a pair of scores. Ryan Fitzpatrick registered 350 yards and four touchdown passes for Buffalo (2-2), but he was also picked off four times.>>LOSER>>Giants 17-EAGLES 19>> Alex Henery’s 26-yard field goal with less than two minutes remaining proved to be the difference, as the Philadelphia Eagles held off the New York Giants, 19-17, in an NFC East clash Sunday night at Lincoln Financial Field. Henery’s fourth field goal of the game gave Philadelphia a two-point lead late in the fourth, but Eli Manning led the Giants deep into Eagles’ territory with the help of a pair of pass interference calls. Lawrence Tynes then had a chance to win the game with a 54-yard field goal with less than 10 seconds remaining, but his kick fell short of the uprights and the Eagles escaped with the victory. Manning finished 24-of-42 for 309 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while Victor Cruz hauled in nine passes for 109 yards and a score for the Giants (2-2), who dropped to 0-2 in division play for the first time since 1996. Eagles quarterback Michael Vick didn’t turn the ball over after giving the ball away nine times over the first three weeks. He went 19-of-30 for 241 yards and a score, and added six carries for 49 yards. LeSean McCoy rushed 23 times for 123 yards and DeSean Jackson caught six passes for 99 yards and a touchdown for the Eagles (3-1), who have won eight of the last nine matchups against the Giants, including the playoffs.

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