Having avoided the potholes that many of my competitors fell into to take 5th place of 54, I will look to continue my run in Week 7.

Led astray by the very sweet middle we had taken a look at in last week’s column, we move back to the drawing board, and back to the science that The Director has used in tapping the Top and Bottom of recent success Against the Spread (‘ATS’). Let’s keep in mind that The Director prefers the Last 5 games ATS as opposed to the last 10 games. ALL teams in the middle that have won 3 games ATS have been removed.

Having noted in our other column how difficult Week 8 appears, this is the week to bank some victories.

football

Stumble It!

With the bye week removing Indianapolis from competing in Week 6, and the Giants facing off against the Saints in New Orleans, it may just be time to dip into the sweet middle of the pack ATS for winners this week.

Having had the large spreads move from the AFC in 2008 to the NFC in 2009 with the Eagles opening as 14.5 point Favorites and the Giants at 16.5 point Favorites in with the injury to Manning, understanding who is at the top and bottom of the pile will be key in taking action in Week 5.

In Week 3, the key was looking to the top dogs ATS. In Week 4 with key matchups between the big dogs, the key will be looking to who is Cold As Ice ATS for victories.

While many are focussed on the Monday Night battle, it seems more fitting to begin focusing on the teams that already find themselves at the top of the ladder Against The Spread (‘ATS’).

Having gone 2-0 ATS in our Subscription Pick, but 0-2 in our FREE Picks, we will rely on these trends as we hit the critical Week 3.

Few times in the past have I seen the lines move like they have in Week 1 of the 2009-2010 season. Thinking about taking action, I encourage you to check out our new Sportsbook Index.

Given the success of their play during the Preseason, here are the largest moves since The Director begin tracking on 7/19:

BALTIMORE @ Kansas City
Open -8.5, Now -13

San Diego @ OAKLAND
Open -7, Now -9.5

Dallas @ TAMPA BAY
Open -3.5, Now -6

Tune into The Director’s FREE NFL Picks on Twitter.

As I begin to sketch my column for Week 1, I have been hit by something. Could there now be a ‘Curse of T.O.’, reminiscent of the Curse of the Bambino? For those of you who don’t know about The Curse of the Bambino, it goes something like this…The very successful Boston Red Sox trade Babe Ruth during the 1919-1920 off season, and do not win a championship again until 2004. The New York Yankees, on the other hand, go on to be one of the greatest championship teams of all time.

The season has not even started and two freak accidents take place; The training stadium comes down with perilous results, and Tony Romo breaks up with Jessica Simpson whereby PEOPLE Magazine reports she is ’sad, mad, and confused’. With the books favoring the Cowboys to only win 9 games, and take third in the NFC East at +275, I simply suggest fans to keep this in mind, and watch out for lightning bolts during the game.

Oakland Raiders/Miami Dolphins
· The Raiders are 0-7 ats (-11.7 ppg) since 1997 as a 7+ dog when they lost by 7+ points in each of their last two games.Check the SDQL here
· The Dolphins are 9-0 ats (+8.6 ppg) since 1990 as a home favorite after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.Check the SDQL here

Arizona Cardinals/Seattle Seahawks
· The Cardinals are 0-5 ats (-10.0 ppg) since december 18, 2005 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than 275 yards offense per game season-to-date.Check the SDQL here
· The Seahawks are 10-0 ats (+11.8 ppg) since december 13, 1998 when they are off a 1-3 point loss vs a non-divisional opponent.Check the SDQL here

Cleveland Browns/Buffalo Bills
· The Browns are 0-8 ats (-10.0 ppg) since 2003 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent when they host another non-divisional opponent next week.Check the SDQL here
· The Bills are 11-0 ats (+11.6 ppg) since 1996 in the game after they visit the patriots.Check the SDQL here

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Kansas City Chiefs/San Diego Chargers
· The Chiefs are 0-5 ats (-10.1 ppg) since 2004 the week after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter.Check the SDQL here
· The Chargers are 10-0 ats (+13.8 ppg) since 2003 at home when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.Check the SDQL here

NY Giants/Philadelphia Eagles
· The Giants are 7-0 ats (+11.4 ppg) since 2006 the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.Check the SDQL here
· The Eagles are 0-7 ats (-10.8 ppg) since 2001 when the line is within 3 of pick after a straight up win on the road, as long as they weren’t getting a td or more in that road win.Check the SDQL here

football

Stumble It!